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Thursday, March 1, 2012

INDIA, G20 AND THE WORLD


CHAPTER 1


INDIA, G20 AND THE WORLD


INDIA IN WORLD POPULATION


1.1.     The United Nations Population Division estimates the global population in  2010  at  6908.7  million.  Compared  to  this,  the  population  of  India  was
1210.2 million as on 1st  March, 2011 as per provisional estimates of Census
2011, which is approximately 17.5 % of the world population. It is only second to the population  of China, which accounts for around 19.4% of the global population. The population of India is almost equal to the combined population of the United States of America, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan, which taken together is about 1214.3 million. The population of China, India and the United States of America, taken together account for nearly 40% of the world population.

1.2.     The United Nations has estimated that the world population grew at an annual rate of 1.23 percent during 2000-2010. China registered a much lower annual  growth  rate  of  population   (0.53  percent)  during  2000-2010,   as compared to India (1.64 per during 2001-2011), which figure is higher than the global average. In fact, the growth rate of China is now third lowest among the ten  most  populous  countries,  which  is  substantially  lower  than  the  United States of America (0.7 percent).


ECONOMY


1.3.     The Indian economy is one of the fastest growing economies  in the world and in terms of purchasing  power parity (PPP), the Indian economy ranks the fourth largest in the world, after the United States, China and Japan. Among the fastest growing large economies in the world, India accounts for approximately  4%  of  the  world's  GDP.  According  to  the  World  Economic Review of the International Monetary Fund, the real GDP growth of the World was forecasted to be about 4.5% in 2011 and in 2012, down modestly from the growth prediction of 5% in 2010.

1.4.     The Indian Economy has emerged with remarkably  rapidity from the slowdown caused by the Global Financial crisis of 2007-09. With growth in
2009-10 being pegged at 8.0% by the Central Statistics Office, the turnaround has been  fast and  strong.  The growth  during  2010-11,  predicted  at 8.6%, reflects a rebound in agriculture production and sustained level of activities in the Industry and Services Sectors.

1.5.     India   is  rapidly   growing   economy,   though   still  a  medium   sized merchandise exporting country, the 15th  largest exporting nation in the world in 2008. Amongst the nations with merchandise exports valued at USD 177
Billion during the year ending March 2010, India is ranked as the 20th largest merchandise  trading  nation.  The  United  States  was  India's  largest  trading

partner in 2005-06, followed by China and the UAE. Since 2008-09, UAE is the largest trading partner of India, followed by China and the USA.

1.6.     Indias trade growth in US$ terms, has been robust at 20% plus since
2002-03. It is strongly co-related with the world trade growth and has been significantly higher than world trade growth particularly in the time period, first just following the 1990 reforms, and second after 2003. Unlike many other countries,  the  global  recession  only  slightly  jolted  the  continued  upward growth in India export sector.

1.7.     The compound annual growth rate for Indian merchandised export for the five year period 2004-05 to 2008-09 increased to 22% from the 14% level of the presiding  5 year period. However  in 2009-10,  there was a negative growth of export (-3.5%),  which was due to the decline  in the world trade volume, which also fell by 10.7% in 2009. Indias share in world merchandised export is rising, but by a very slow pace, so as to reach 1.3% in 2009 and
1.4% in 2010. The Share of China in the world export between the years 2000 to 2009 increased  from 3.9% in 2000 to 9.7% in 2009. The merchandised export of India was also affected by the global recession and fell to US$ 288.4 billion, with a negative growth of -5.0% in 2009-10. This was primarily due to the fall in growth of petroleum oil and lubricant imports by 7% and non POL import  by 4.2%.  The  most  notable  change  is the  sudden  rise  in share  of capital goods imports from 10.5 % in 2000-01 to 15.0 % in 2009-10 and again a fall to 13.1% in the beginning of 2010-11, the reason being the sea-saw movement in share of import of transport equipment.


Human Development

1.8.     Each year since 1980 the Human Development Report has published the Human Development Index (HDI) which was introduced as an alternative to conventional measures of national development, such as level of income and the rate of economic growth. The HDI represents a push for a broader definition of well-being and provides a composite measure of three basic dimensions of human development, health, education and income.

1.9.     In   the   Human   Development   Report   2010   by   United   Nations Development Programme (UNDP) that covered 169 countries and territories, first time three new indices - Inequality  Adjustment  HDI, Gender Inequality Index and Multi-Dimensional  Poverty Index has been developed. There has been steady progress on HDI over the past 20 years and India's HDI (134) is above the average for countries in South Asia. However, India's position is way below that of China (101) and Sri Lanka (97).

1.10.   Although  India  has  improved  in  the  income  index,  but  has  lagged behind the neighbouring countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan in education and healthcare. Even though India has made steady progress in the human development index over the past 20 years, the country continues to see rising inequality, especially in education and healthcare - is factored in. Norway has topped the HDI, with a score of 0.943, in a scale of zero to one. A score of one indicates a perfect level in the index. The Nordic country is followed by

Australia at the second place (0.929) and New Zealand with a score of 0.910 ranked  third.  The  world's  largest  economy  US  is  fourth  with  a  score  of
0.910.nked third. The world's largest economy US is fourth with a score of
0.910.

1.11. In the Gender Inequality Index, India is at a poor 134nd position, Bangladesh   and   Pakistan   are   ranked   at   146th     and   145th     positions, respectively,  indicating  that  India  is  better  in  gender  equality  than  these nations.  Between  1980  and 2010  Indias  HDI rose by 1.6%  annually  from
0.320 to 0.519 today.

1.12.   India has performed  better  than most (including  very high and high human development)  countries in terms of average annual HDI growth rate except China as mentioned in Table 1.2.

G20 COUNTRIES

1.13.   The  G20  comprises  of  19  countries  namely,  Argentina,  Australia, Brazil,  Canada,  China,  France,  Germany,  India,  Indonesia,  Italy,  Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the Republic of Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States of America and the European Union, which is represented  by the rotating Council Presidency  and the European
Central  Bank as the 20th  member.  It represents  90 per cent of the global
Gross National Product, 80 per cent of the World’s Trade and two-third of the
World’s Population.

1.14.   The G20 was established in 1999 to bring together Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of systemically important industrialized and developing economies to discuss key issues relating to the global economy and financial stability. By contributing to the strengthening of the international financial architecture and providing opportunities for dialogue on national policies, international co-operation, and international financial institutions, the G-20 helps to support growth, financial stability and development across the globe. During this period, China overtook Japan as the world's second largest economy,  and  the  replacement  of  the  old  G7/G8  structure  with  the  G20, bringing  together   the  twenty  most  important   economies   from  both  the advanced and developing worlds

1.15.   Since its inception,  the G20 has held annual  Finance  Ministers  and Central  Bank  Governors meetings  and  discussed  measures  to  promote financial stability in the world and achieve sustainable economic growth and development.

1.16.   In the wake of the global financial and economic crisis in 2008, the G20 was elevated to a Leaders Summit. It was designated as a premier forum for International Economic Cooperation in 2009, effectively replacing the G8 as a forum for steering the global issues. The move was considered a milestone in reforming global governance, making it more inclusive since this forum comprises both emerging as well as industrialized economies.

1.17.   Five Summits at the level of G20 leaders or Heads of State have been held  since  breakout  of the  Global  Economic  Crisis  in 2008,  which  are  as follows :

Sl. No.
Summit’s venue
Month/Year
1.
Washington, DC,UDA
15th November, 2008
2.
London, UK
2nd April, 2009
3.
Pittsburgh, USA
24-25 September, 2009
4.
Toronto, Canada
26-27 June, 2010
5.
Seoul, South Korea
11-12 November,2010

1.18.   The significant achievements of the first G20 Summit held in November
2008 in Washington DC were in the form of high level commitments, such as :

          to reform international financial regulation;
          to expand the financial Stability Forum and other major standard setting bodies; and
          to  give  greater  voice  and  representation   to  emerging  and developing countries in International Financial Institutions.

1.19.   The second G20 Summit was held in London in April 2009, where the Leaders  pledged  to : (i) restore  confidence,  growth  and  jobs;  (ii) promote global trade and investment; and (iii) reject protectionism. They also agreed to undertake  unprecedented   and  concerted  fiscal  expansion  and  monetary easing,  and  reached  an  agreement  to  provide  over  a trillion  US  dollar  of additional resources to the global economy through the International Financial Institutions, of which 750 billion US dollar was for the IMF.

1.20.   The Third G20 Leaders’ Summit was held in Pittsburgh, USA on 24-25
September, 2009. The major outcomes of this meeting were :

          timelines for voice and quota reforms in the World Bank and the
IMF, timelines for regulatory reform in the Financial Sector
          launching of a Framework for Strong Sustainable and Balanced Growth, (4) resolve to phase out and rationalize inefficient fossil fuel subsidies while protecting the interests of the poorest, and
          designating   the  G20  as  the  premier  multilateral   forum  for cooperation on economic issues.

1.21.   The fourth G20 Leaders Summit was held at Toronto, Canada, on 26-
27 June, 2010. The leaders agreed that the G20 countries should ensure a full return to growth with quality jobs, carry out growth friendly fiscal consolidation,  reforms and strengthen  financial systems, and create strong, sustainable and balanced global growth. In addition, there was agreement on strengthening the social safety nets, enhancing corporate governance reform, financial market development, infrastructure spending, and greater exchange

rate  flexibility   in  some  emerging   markets.   In  this  summit   the  leaders unanimously agreed for

          pursuing structural reforms across the entire G-20 membership countries to increase and sustain growth prospects; and
          making more progress on rebalancing global demand.
          renewing for three years (until end 2013) the G20 commitment to  refrain from raising barriers or imposing new restrictions on trade in goods and services, imposing new export curbs or implementing WTO inconsistent measures to stimulate exports.
          support to bring the Doha Development  Round to a balanced and ambitious conclusion as soon as possible.

1.22.   The Fifth G20 Summit was held in Seoul, South Korea, on 11th and 12th November, 2010. The Leaders Declaration in this summit includes Adoption of the  Seoul  Action  Plan,  “country  specific  actions,  to move  closer  to the shared objectives of stronger, sustainable and balanced growth”. In detail it is to :

(a)        Undertake      macroeconomic       policies,      including      fiscal consolidation  to  ensure  on  going  recovery  and  sustainable growth   and   enhance   the   stability   of  financial   markets,   in particular  moving  towards  more  market  determined  exchange rate systems, and refraining from competitive devaluation of currencies. Advanced economies,  including those with reserve currencies,   will   be   vigilant   against   excess   volatility   and disorderly movements in exchange rates;

(b)      Implement a range of structural reforms that boost and sustain global demand, foster job creation, and increase the potential for growth; and

(c)        Enhance  the  Mutual  Assessment  Process  (MAP)  to  promote external sustainability. To strengthen multilateral cooperation to promote  external  sustainability  and  pursue  the  full  range  of policies conducive to reducing excessive imbalances and maintained  current  account  imbalances  at  sustainable  levels. The leaders have tasked the G-20 Framework Working Group (of which India is a co-chair, along with Canada) with technical support  of  the  IMF  and  other  international  organizations  to develop indicative guidelines composed of a range of indicators that   would   serve   as   a   mechanism    to   facilitate    timely identification of large imbalances that require preventive and corrective actions to be taken.



INDIA AND G20

1.23.   It  is  prettily  exciting  that  in  G20  Countries,  not  only  the  very  rich countries are included but also countries like China and India that are now

middle-income countries and starts making contribution to help the poorer as well are included.

1.24.   India  is a member  of the G20  since  it was established  as Finance Ministers Forum in 1999. India is the only G20 member country from South Asia and one of the important emerging market member countries in the G20. India’s views being a member of the Group of 20 and the big economic powerhouse next to USA, China and the EU on how to overcome global challenges  with  regard  to ongoing  problems  caused  by the economic  and financial crisis are increasingly recognized and welcomed.

1.25.   Some important landmarks in India’s involvement in the G20 are:

          India chaired G20 in 2002 and hosted G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in that year.
          Co-chaired  (represented  by  Deputy  Governor,  RBI)  the  G20
Working    Group    on    Enhancing    Sound    Regulation    and
Strengthening    Transparency    (after    the    November    2008
Washington Summit)
          Currently co-chair of the working Group on G20 Framework for
Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth along with Canada.
          India is contributing to various thematic issues being deliberated in G20 such as :

¾         Financial sector regulatory reform
¾         Climate change
¾         IFIs reform
¾         Growth and Fiscal Consolidation
¾         Enhancing shareholding in forums such as FSB, IASB
¾         Issues pertaining to Non-Cooperative Jurisdiction (Global
Forum, FATF etc.)

1.26.   Several  landmark  reforms  of International  Financial  Institutions  were initiated  at  the  behest  of  the  G20  which  heightened  the  expectation  for bringing   about   fundamental   changes   in   the   functioning   of   the   global institutions and in the global governance structure. India as a member of the G20  has  been  actively  engaged  in  Global  Economic  Governance  and  in shaping the World Order.

1.27.   The G20 members have enjoyed enormous progress against poverty, especially over the last 20 years. Economic conditions within these countries play  a  major  role  in  setting  the  economic  atmosphere  of  less  well-to-do nations   and   their   economies.   In   many   aspects,   developing   and   less developed economies depend on the developed countries for their economic wellbeing.

1.28.   Overall inequality in the G20 (and the world) has come down, but that is on average, and not all members have experienced widening intra-country inequality.  In fact, the poor in the G20 (and the broader world) have been getting richer in unprecedented numbers, and are beginning slowly to reduce

the relative gap with the rich. The success of the G20 economies has been remarkable, but success does not mean victory by any means. The number of poor is still embarrassingly large.

1.29.   The 2011 Report released by the Asian Development Bank predicted that Asian nations such as China and India would play a more important role in the process  of Global  Economic  Governance  Reform  in the future.  The report  stated  that the rise of emerging  market  economies  heralded  a new world order, in which the G-20 would become the Global Economic Steering Committee.

Highlights: Comparison of India with other G20 Countries

          Among G20 Countries, in 2010, valuation of India on Purchasing Power Parity  (GDP)  is at the  4th  position.  USA  stands  at 1st position  followed  by  China  and  Japan.  As  far  as  per  capita income  is  concerned,  India  is  at  the  19th   position,  the  only country for which per capita income is lower than India is Indonesia.

          Among G20 countries,  Human Development  Index (0.547) for India for 2011 is lowest (134), followed by South Africa (0.619) at 123rd position and China at 101st position. Countries which are having  maximum  rank  are  Australia  (2),  United  States  (4),
Canada (6), Germany (9) and Japan (12).

          According to this report, life expectancy at birth is the minimum for South Africa (52.8) and then India (65.4), which is less than the World average of 69.8.

          Countries  having  Life  expectancy  at birth  higher  than  80 are Australia (81.9), France (81.5), Germany (80.4) and the United Kingdom (80.2).

          Among G20 Countries, maternal mortality ratio is maximum in South Africa (410) followed by Indonesia (240) and then India (230).

          Countries having maternal mortality ratio less than 10 are Italy
(5), Japan (6), Germany (7), France (8) and Australia (8).

          World average for total fertility rate is 2.4.The countries which are having fertility rate more than World average are India (2.5), Saudi Arabia (2.6) and South Africa (2.4).

          Among G20 Countries, Adolescent fertility rate is the maximum for India (86.3), followed by Mexico (70.6), Brazil (75.6) and then South Africa (59.2). For rest of the countries, adolescent fertility rate is much lower than the world average 58.1.

         India’s  position  for  schooling  is  worst  among  G20  Countries.
Expected years of schooling in India is 10.3, lower than world average  (11.3).  The  mean  year  of schooling  is 4.4,  which  is much lower than world average (7.4). Population  with at least Secondary Education is 26.6, much lower than World average.

This chapter contains the following tables :


Table 1.1: Export growth and Share in world exports: India and other
Countries

Table 1.2: Human Development Index and its Components

Table 1.3: G-20

Table 1.4:Human Development Index and its components for G20 Countries

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